好久没有特别写一篇BTC
今天来写一下为什麽我上一篇写到有机会到38000
特别是经历了昨天的fake new bull
先说一下我的观点 很有机会再上攻 但是要配合美股
而且攻完後很有机会像我先前说的 到点立即瀑布
另外一个满足的条件是我认为需要再回测一波
it’s been a long time since I wrote a special piece about BTC.
Today, I’ll talk about why in my previous article, I mentioned the possibility of it reaching 38,000, especially after experiencing the fake news bull market yesterday.
First, let me express my viewpoint. There is a good chance for another upward move, but it would likely require alignment with the performance of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, after this potential upward move, there is a high likelihood of a rapid decline, similar to what I previously mentioned as an BLX abrupt ‘waterfall’ scenario
Another fulfilling condition is that I believe there needs to be another round of retesting
“前情提要” “Previously”
BTC
最近上下插针的很严重
主要是流动性问题
中长期来说分歧很大
建议是短线操作
因为在流动性不足的情况下
我认为所谓的牛要回来很困难
因为连股市都不好了 要资金进来更难
会有所谓的小疯牛我同意
但是目前情况真牛不可能
我个人估计 +-38500 大约是可能潜在的顶部
但是时间上有点难达成了
尤其是目前情势上有困难
Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it’s very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small “crazy bull” I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it’s a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.
我先来肢解一下我的方式
先设定一下POE 2020/11/26-今天
然後设置水平线标记
First, let me break down my approach. I’ll start by setting a timeframe for POE from November 26, 2020, to today, and then I’ll place horizontal line markers.
接下来/And
2020/11/26-2022/05/12
2022/05/12-Today
做完後可以得到一份完整的POE图表
接下来就是画趋势线
我个人一直认为2021-9到12月是假突破
所以我的趋势线可能会不一样
但是请你慢慢看下去
另外前底部我是2021-1-4号为起点 连到5-19底部
After completing all step, you can get a complete chart of POE. Next is to draw a trendline. Personally, I’ve always believed that September to December 2021 was a false breakout, so my trendlines might be different. Please take your time to look at it. Additionally, for the previous bottom, I use January 4, 2021, as the starting point and connect it to the bottom on May 19.
趋势线完成後 请使用Fib 阻力扇
沿着趋势线画一道
After completing the trendline, please use the Fibonacci retracement fan along the trendline
然後在底部 （量最大）
连上2023-3月回测的底部
在一道阻力扇
Then, at the bottom (with the highest volume), connect it to the bottom from the March 2023 retest and draw another Fibonacci retracement fan
之後先把阻力扇关掉 留下趋势线
我们知道通常三角收敛表态後 开口等於力道
请看白线
Next, turn off the Fibonacci retracement fans and keep the trendline. We know that usually, after a triangular convergence, the opening signifies strength. Please see the white line
这边证明了 教科书是有用的 (笑)
This demonstrates that textbooks are useful (chuckles).
那是否可以用来推论 2021/7月的上涨幅的 （蓝线)
同时可以把之前的POE打开一起看
是否发现这个区域 （38317-40151）
非常的纠结
配合上传统11-12美股转强加上选举因素
我才会认为有一个涨幅空间
Can we use this to infer the upward movement in July 2021 (the blue line)? You can also open the previous POE chart and see if you notice this range (38317-40151). It’s quite tangled, combined with the traditional strength in the U.S. stock market during November-December and election factors. This is why I believe there is room for an upward movement.
接下来在打开阻力扇
通常上下趋势交界的时候都有比较大的波幅 只是没想到会是fake news
但是这证明了一件事情
这个市场目前是被严重操作
以目前的情况我认为年底前
配合美股还有机会上涨
区域范围就如我上篇提到的38500 （38317-40151）
但是坏新闻来了
如果局势继续走低 尤其是美国情况无法短时间转向
国际纷争无法有共识
最坏情况请看下图
尤其如果真的走向我提到的失落10年
（话说 最近华尔街也开始有人提到这个观点）
However, this proves one thing: the current market is heavily manipulated. Given the current situation, I believe there is a chance for an upward movement by the end of the year, in the range as mentioned in my previous article, 38,500 (38317-40151).
But here comes the bad news. If the situation continues to worsen, especially if the U.S. situation doesn’t turn around quickly and there is no consensus on international disputes, please see the worst-case scenario in this chart. Especially if it truly leads to the ‘Lost Decade’ as I mentioned. (By the way, recently, even Wall Street has begun to discuss this possibility.)
当然这个会是很极端的情况下
需要很多情况配合
只是单纯分享一下
最坏可能会到什麽程度
Of course, this is an extremely extreme scenario that requires a lot of conditions to align. I’m just sharing what the worst-case scenario might look like.”
