特别是经历了昨天的fake new bull
先说一下我的观点 很有机会再上攻 但是要配合美股
it’s been a long time since I wrote a special piece about BTC.
Today, I’ll talk about why in my previous article, I mentioned the possibility of it reaching 38,000, especially after experiencing the fake news bull market yesterday.
First, let me express my viewpoint. There is a good chance for another upward move, but it would likely require alignment with the performance of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, after this potential upward move, there is a high likelihood of a rapid decline, similar to what I previously mentioned as an BLX abrupt ‘waterfall’ scenario
Another fulfilling condition is that I believe there needs to be another round of retesting
我个人估计 +-38500 大约是可能潜在的顶部
Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it’s very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small “crazy bull” I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it’s a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.
First, let me break down my approach. I’ll start by setting a timeframe for POE from November 26, 2020, to today, and then I’ll place horizontal line markers.
After completing all step, you can get a complete chart of POE. Next is to draw a trendline. Personally, I’ve always believed that September to December 2021 was a false breakout, so my trendlines might be different. Please take your time to look at it. Additionally, for the previous bottom, I use January 4, 2021, as the starting point and connect it to the bottom on May 19.
趋势线完成後 请使用Fib 阻力扇
After completing the trendline, please use the Fibonacci retracement fan along the trendline
Then, at the bottom (with the highest volume), connect it to the bottom from the March 2023 retest and draw another Fibonacci retracement fan
Next, turn off the Fibonacci retracement fans and keep the trendline. We know that usually, after a triangular convergence, the opening signifies strength. Please see the white line
这边证明了 教科书是有用的 (笑)
This demonstrates that textbooks are useful (chuckles).
那是否可以用来推论 2021/7月的上涨幅的 （蓝线)
Can we use this to infer the upward movement in July 2021 (the blue line)? You can also open the previous POE chart and see if you notice this range (38317-40151). It’s quite tangled, combined with the traditional strength in the U.S. stock market during November-December and election factors. This is why I believe there is room for an upward movement.
通常上下趋势交界的时候都有比较大的波幅 只是没想到会是fake news
However, this proves one thing: the current market is heavily manipulated. Given the current situation, I believe there is a chance for an upward movement by the end of the year, in the range as mentioned in my previous article, 38,500 (38317-40151).
But here comes the bad news. If the situation continues to worsen, especially if the U.S. situation doesn’t turn around quickly and there is no consensus on international disputes, please see the worst-case scenario in this chart. Especially if it truly leads to the ‘Lost Decade’ as I mentioned. (By the way, recently, even Wall Street has begun to discuss this possibility.)
Of course, this is an extremely extreme scenario that requires a lot of conditions to align. I’m just sharing what the worst-case scenario might look like.”