最近杂事很多
周末时间又多在家庭生活
晚上都累累懒懒的
虽然一直觉得不能这样下去
但是还是提不起精神
不过昨晚的中东情势突然有了大变化
今天强迫自己无论如何都要来一篇才能对的起自己
Recently, there have been a lot of miscellaneous matters.
On weekends, I have more time for family life.
That makes me feel tired and lazy in the evenings.
Although I’ve been feeling that I can’t continue like this,
I still can’t muster the energy.
However, there was a sudden major change in the Middle East situation last night.
So today, I forced myself to write something no matter what to justify myself.
目前因为中东问题
我原本认为在一波的小牛可能不会到来
很可惜的还没跑就提前结束
当然以线论线来说
还是可以有点期待
但是这都要看下礼拜的国际反应
而且会是短线上的操作而已
Due to the current Middle East situation,
I originally believed that a small bull market wave might come.
Unfortunately, it seems to have ended prematurely.
Of course, when it comes to technical analysis, there is still some hope, but it all depends on international reactions next week. This would likely be short-term trading.
DXY
上篇提到回调 但还是强势上涨了一段才开始回落
在未发生冲突前回落的幅度可以预期
但是现在看来很有可能会直接续攻
这会影响到美股及其他经济走势
缩小日线来看
没有到我预定的位置才开始回调
但是目前是已经到第一个位置
很巧的是刚好就有冲突发生
如果下周续跌 注意原本的压力区
（长蓝色线底）
应该到这附近就会反转
继续往230426规划的区域迈进
In the previous post, I mentioned a retracement, but it continued to rise strongly before starting to pull back.
The magnitude of the pullback can be expected before any conflict occurs,
but now it seems very likely to continue rising directly.
This will affect the US stock market and other economic trends.
Looking at the daily chart,
it didn’t start to pull back until it reached the area I had planned.
But now it has already reached the first position.
It’s quite coincidental that a conflict has occurred.
If it continues to decline next week, pay attention to the original resistance zone
(long blue line bottom).
It should reverse around this area
and continue towards the area planned at 230426.
大方向来说
不同模型估算出来的目标区域我已经表示出来
里面的日期是我今天重新标注的日期
其实这个是早几个月前就规划出来的
只是没有特别注明
In terms of the overall direction, I’ve already indicated the target areas estimated by different models.
The dates inside are the ones I re-marked today,
but this was planned several months ago.
I just didn’t specify it explicitly.
DJI
之前预估的区域有到
毕竟我画的区域真的很宽（笑脸）
也很顺利的在1/2线中徘徊（之前画的图编号不一样）
现在向下突破拉回
在中东升级前
我认为回到2不是问题
但是现在看来可能连1都会是问题
下礼拜看情势发展
如果很快速的有解决方式
那突破2去摸上方顶部只是piece of cake
The previously estimated area has been reached.
After all, the area I drew is really wide (laughs).
It has also been hovering around the 1/2 line smoothly (the previous chart had a different numbering).
Now it has broken down and pulled back.
Before the escalation in the Middle East,
I thought going back to 2 wouldn’t be a problem,
but now it seems that even 1 might be a problem.
I’ll see how the situation develops next week.
If there’s a quick solution, then breaking through 2 to touch the top should be a piece of cake.
NDQ
好像没什麽好解释
上一篇都讲完了
大致上跟DJI一样
上方过一不过下降或框
下方还是先等碰到橘色区域
It seems there’s not much to explain.
I covered it in the previous post.
In general, it’s similar to DJI.
Passing above is good, failing below or consolidating.
I’m still waiting for it to touch the orange area below.
SPX
忽然发现青色线很管用
破了直接下去 而且还突破原本规划的蓝色水平短线
目前虽然强势拉一根 但是最後还是收在我认为的牛熊转换线L1之下
这个不是个好讯号
一样 看下周情势
但是就算上涨 要注意青色线
另外很有可能连压力区都上不去 (+-4390)
原则上 我还是计画去看下面的框框区域
I suddenly realized that the blue line is effective.
Once it’s broken, it goes down directly, and it has also broken the originally planned blue horizontal short line.
Although it’s currently showing strength with a single candle, it’s still below what I consider the bull-bear conversion line L1.
This is not a good signal.
Again, I’ll watch the situation next week.
But even if it goes up, watch out for the blue line.
It’s also very likely that it won’t even reach the resistance zone (+-4390).
In principle, I still plan to look at the lower boxed area.
BTC
最近上下插针的很严重
主要是流动性问题
中长期来说分歧很大
建议是短线操作
因为在流动性不足的情况下
我认为所谓的牛要回来很困难
因为连股市都不好了 要资金进来更难
会有所谓的小疯牛我同意
但是目前情况真牛不可能
我个人估计 +-38500 大约是可能潜在的顶部
但是时间上有点难达成了
尤其是目前情势上有困难
Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it’s very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small “crazy bull” I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it’s a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.
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这边稍微提一下
关於中东 个人认为情势可能不容乐观 局势升级的可能性比较高
一方面以色列算是半外来政权，尤其是当美国单方面把模糊空间打破。
这也是为什麽原本处於内斗中的阿拉伯半岛会坐下来谈，绝对不是单纯因为中国的帮助和谈那麽简单。
从历史来看 美国在各地放置/扶植的政权原本就是为了在适当时机拖累当地发展。
熟知的南北韩，南北越，东西德，台湾，阿富汗，以色列，乌克兰等 都是
但以目前来看 同时要开这麽多战场，而且对手都不是小国的情况下
很容易演变到不可收拾的局面。
过往的情况是没有匹敌的对手。局势容易控制
收获都可以再短期内马上填补战争时期的损失。
而且有效的拖累其他国家的发展。
但是现在美国本身处於内政不稳，且对手(联盟)国力届不弱的情况下
搞不好一有闪失，以後看股票就是看亚洲股市了
以目前来说 表态的国家除了少数几个国家 大部分都属於美系国家
原因很明显 利益问题 世界的不稳是西方稳定获利的基石
所以我判断 欧洲国家会口头上双面支持乌克兰以色列
但是私底下会放弃乌克兰转而引导到以色列
而美国会转而支持乌克兰多余以色列
至於原本被认定最危险的亚洲方面
虽然不愿意面对 但很有可能在乌克兰及以色列最激烈时
再爆发一场预期中但不想面对的战争
I’ll briefly mention here that, in my personal opinion, the situation in the Middle East may not be optimistic, and the likelihood of an escalation in the situation is relatively high. On one hand, Israel can be considered a semi-external power, especially when the United States unilaterally disrupts the blurred space. This is also why the warring factions in the Arabian Peninsula, which were previously in internal conflicts, have come to the negotiation table. It’s definitely not as simple as just China’s assistance and negotiations.
From a historical perspective, the United States has placed/supported regimes around the world originally with the intention of impeding local development at the right time. Well-known examples include North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, and more. However, looking at the current situation, simultaneously opening up so many battlefields and facing opponents who are not small countries can easily lead to an uncontrollable situation.
In the past, there was no rival that could match the United States, and the situation was easy to control. The gains could be replenished immediately in the short term during wartime. It was also effective in hindering the development of other countries. But now, the United States itself is experiencing internal instability, and its opponents (allied nations) are not weak. In case of any missteps, in the future, watching the stock market might mean looking at Asian stock markets.
As of now, most of the countries that have taken a stance belong to the American camp, with only a few exceptions. The reason is clear: it’s an issue of interests. The instability of the world serves as the cornerstone for the profits of the Western world. Therefore, I judge that European countries will verbally support both Ukraine and Israel but will privately abandon Ukraine and guide toward Israel. The United States, on the other hand, will shift its support from Israel to Ukraine.
As for the initially perceived most dangerous aspect in Asia, even though no one wants to face it, it’s highly likely that, during the most intense periods in Ukraine and Israel, another war that is expected but not wanted could break out.
DXY DJI SPX NDQ BTCUSD
