Recently, there have been a lot of miscellaneous matters.
On weekends, I have more time for family life.
That makes me feel tired and lazy in the evenings.
Although I’ve been feeling that I can’t continue like this,
I still can’t muster the energy.
However, there was a sudden major change in the Middle East situation last night.
So today, I forced myself to write something no matter what to justify myself.
Due to the current Middle East situation,
I originally believed that a small bull market wave might come.
Unfortunately, it seems to have ended prematurely.
Of course, when it comes to technical analysis, there is still some hope, but it all depends on international reactions next week. This would likely be short-term trading.
In the previous post, I mentioned a retracement, but it continued to rise strongly before starting to pull back.
The magnitude of the pullback can be expected before any conflict occurs,
but now it seems very likely to continue rising directly.
This will affect the US stock market and other economic trends.
Looking at the daily chart,
it didn’t start to pull back until it reached the area I had planned.
But now it has already reached the first position.
It’s quite coincidental that a conflict has occurred.
If it continues to decline next week, pay attention to the original resistance zone
(long blue line bottom).
It should reverse around this area
and continue towards the area planned at 230426.
In terms of the overall direction, I’ve already indicated the target areas estimated by different models.
The dates inside are the ones I re-marked today,
but this was planned several months ago.
I just didn’t specify it explicitly.
那突破2去摸上方顶部只是piece of cake
The previously estimated area has been reached.
After all, the area I drew is really wide (laughs).
It has also been hovering around the 1/2 line smoothly (the previous chart had a different numbering).
Now it has broken down and pulled back.
Before the escalation in the Middle East,
I thought going back to 2 wouldn’t be a problem,
but now it seems that even 1 might be a problem.
I’ll see how the situation develops next week.
If there’s a quick solution, then breaking through 2 to touch the top should be a piece of cake.
It seems there’s not much to explain.
I covered it in the previous post.
In general, it’s similar to DJI.
Passing above is good, failing below or consolidating.
I’m still waiting for it to touch the orange area below.
I suddenly realized that the blue line is effective.
Once it’s broken, it goes down directly, and it has also broken the originally planned blue horizontal short line.
Although it’s currently showing strength with a single candle, it’s still below what I consider the bull-bear conversion line L1.
This is not a good signal.
Again, I’ll watch the situation next week.
But even if it goes up, watch out for the blue line.
It’s also very likely that it won’t even reach the resistance zone (+-4390).
In principle, I still plan to look at the lower boxed area.
我个人估计 +-38500 大约是可能潜在的顶部
Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it’s very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small “crazy bull” I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it’s a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.
关於中东 个人认为情势可能不容乐观 局势升级的可能性比较高
以目前来说 表态的国家除了少数几个国家 大部分都属於美系国家
原因很明显 利益问题 世界的不稳是西方稳定获利的基石
I’ll briefly mention here that, in my personal opinion, the situation in the Middle East may not be optimistic, and the likelihood of an escalation in the situation is relatively high. On one hand, Israel can be considered a semi-external power, especially when the United States unilaterally disrupts the blurred space. This is also why the warring factions in the Arabian Peninsula, which were previously in internal conflicts, have come to the negotiation table. It’s definitely not as simple as just China’s assistance and negotiations.
From a historical perspective, the United States has placed/supported regimes around the world originally with the intention of impeding local development at the right time. Well-known examples include North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, and more. However, looking at the current situation, simultaneously opening up so many battlefields and facing opponents who are not small countries can easily lead to an uncontrollable situation.
In the past, there was no rival that could match the United States, and the situation was easy to control. The gains could be replenished immediately in the short term during wartime. It was also effective in hindering the development of other countries. But now, the United States itself is experiencing internal instability, and its opponents (allied nations) are not weak. In case of any missteps, in the future, watching the stock market might mean looking at Asian stock markets.
As of now, most of the countries that have taken a stance belong to the American camp, with only a few exceptions. The reason is clear: it’s an issue of interests. The instability of the world serves as the cornerstone for the profits of the Western world. Therefore, I judge that European countries will verbally support both Ukraine and Israel but will privately abandon Ukraine and guide toward Israel. The United States, on the other hand, will shift its support from Israel to Ukraine.
As for the initially perceived most dangerous aspect in Asia, even though no one wants to face it, it’s highly likely that, during the most intense periods in Ukraine and Israel, another war that is expected but not wanted could break out.
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